Everything we do centers around quantified geopolitical forecasting–whether we are creating new forecasts about whether the United States will rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by the end of 2021 or talking with elite "Superforecasters" such as Regina Joseph, Balkan Devlen, or David Manheim to learn their advice and hear their thoughts about predictions.
We also cover subjects like startups, entrepreneurship, real-money prediction markets, and crypto that interest Clay and Andrew, the co-founders of Global Guessing and co-owners of its parent company baserate.io Incorporated.
At Global Guessing, we have three key pillars of content:
1. Geopolitical Predictions
At its core, Global Guessing is about geopolitical forecasting. Our two main types of forecasts are elections and Metaculus Mondays.
With Metaculus Mondays, we select questions from the community prediction platform Metaculus to either forecast, update, or review. We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as "base-rates", and implementing best-practices, and track the questions to resolution. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.
2. Global Guessing Weekly Podcast
On the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Clay and Andrew get together to chat on all things related to Global Guessing–geopolitics and forecasting, but also entrepreneurship, prediction markets, and more. They are often joined by the quests. Questions are inquisitive, and the discussions deep–but the show makes for an fun and educational start to your weekend.
3. The Right Side of Maybe
Although Andrew and Clay are trying their best to make the most accurate forecasts, we admit there are many superior. That's why we want to sit down with them and learn what we can with The Right Side of Maybe.
Every episode, we bring on elite forecasters to talk about their background in and advice about forecasting, before diving deep into forecasts which they either excelled in or learned from.
Find us on Social Media
We also create content relating to real-money prediction markets (newsletter and podcast) as well as weekly geopolitical events (podcast).