About Us

About Us

Understanding the world's complex geopolitical issues shouldn't be exclusive to a select few. Our mission at Third Image Media is to make geopolitics accessible to all by breaking down complex concepts and presenting them in a clear and concise way.

We bring a youthful and fresh perspective to world affairs, engaging our audience through innovative storytelling and analysis. Through our content, we aim to foster a community of informed and engaged citizens who are empowered to participate in shaping the world around them.

Third Image Media is committed to providing engaging, well-informed, and accessible coverage of geopolitics, world history, and diplomacy through GeoVane's short-form and medium-form video content, as well as our long-form podcast, The Long Telegram.


Our Past

Before we were Third Image Media, we were Base Rate and AR Global Security. Base Rate was composed of Global Guessing (GlobalGuessing.com) and Crowd Money (crowdmoney.io), a geopolitical forecasting and prediction market newsletter + podcast respectively. ARGlobalSecurity was a YouTube and TikTok channel focused on geopolitics news and analysis.

Features in the News

Clay Graubard & Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
“By around January 1, I was 62% likelihood of an invasion. It rose quite precipitously as the steps that Russia was taking were escalating...”
Notes on Forecasting the Invasion of Ukraine
Should we have seen it coming more clearly?
How super-forecasters predicted an invasion of Ukraine before Putin moved troops in
Establishing what’s happening in the present is hard, so how do we get better at telling what will happen, and agreeing on what has happened when it does?
Ukraine Warcasting
Mantic Monday 2/28/22: Predictions, market accountability, pundit accountability
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold