Global Guessing

Everything we do centers around quantified geopolitical forecasting–whether we are creating new forecasts about whether the United States will rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by the end of 2021 or talking with elite "Superforecasters" such as Regina Joseph, Balkan Devlen, or David Manheim to learn their advice and hear their thoughts about predictions.

We also cover subjects like startups, entrepreneurship, real-money prediction markets, and crypto that interest Clay and Andrew, the co-founders of Global Guessing and co-owners of its parent company Incorporated.

Base rate | Forecasting, Prediction Markets, and Geopolitics
Creating Global Guessing (geopolitics and the science of forecasting) and Crowd Money (prediction markets).

At Global Guessing, we have three key pillars of content:

1. Geopolitical Predictions

At its core, Global Guessing is about geopolitical forecasting. Our two main types of forecasts are elections and Metaculus Mondays.

Forecasts - Global Guessing
We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as “base-rates” and relevant constraints, and implementing best-practices. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.

With Metaculus Mondays, we select questions from the community prediction platform Metaculus to either forecast, update, or review. We provide our own in-depth forecasts, examining critical elements such as "base-rates", and implementing best-practices, and track the questions to resolution. The questions are largely tied to geopolitical importance.

2. Global Guessing Weekly Podcast

On the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Clay and Andrew get together to chat on all things related to Global Guessing–geopolitics and forecasting, but also entrepreneurship, prediction markets, and more. They are often joined by the quests. Questions are inquisitive, and the discussions deep–but the show makes for an fun and educational start to your weekend.

Global Guessing Weekly Podcast - Geopolitics and the Science of Forecasting
The world of geopolitics and predicting what happens.

3. The Right Side of Maybe

Although Andrew and Clay are trying their best to make the most accurate forecasts, we admit there are many superior. That's why we want to sit down with them and learn what we can with The Right Side of Maybe.

✅ The Right Side of Maybe | Interviewing Elite Forecasters
Interviewing elite forecasters, diving deep into past forecasts.

Every episode, we bring on elite forecasters to talk about their background in and advice about forecasting, before diving deep into forecasts which they either excelled in or learned from.

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Other Content

We also create content relating to real-money prediction markets (newsletter and podcast) as well as weekly geopolitical events (podcast).

? Crowd Money

? Crowd Money: Exploring Prediction Markets
A newsletter and podcast from Global Guessing exploring real-money prediction markets like PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi.

Features in the News

Clay Graubard & Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
“By around January 1, I was 62% likelihood of an invasion. It rose quite precipitously as the steps that Russia was taking were escalating...”
Notes on Forecasting the Invasion of Ukraine
Should we have seen it coming more clearly?
How super-forecasters predicted an invasion of Ukraine before Putin moved troops in
Establishing what’s happening in the present is hard, so how do we get better at telling what will happen, and agreeing on what has happened when it does?
Ukraine Warcasting
Mantic Monday 2/28/22: Predictions, market accountability, pundit accountability
Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold