In early 2020, when discussion around a Covid-19 vaccine first started, our guest made a forecast regarding vaccine roll-outs that ended up being spot on. Dr. David Manheim–a Superforecaster at Good Judgement, top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus, lead researcher, and public policy whiz–got this question right, a crowd of superforecasters and showcasing his strong forecasting ability.
In this second episode of The Right Side of Maybe, we spoke to Dr. Manheim about his introduction to forecasting, his views on how to improve forecasts with some basic techniques, and the concept of Minimal Valuable Forecasts before digging deeper into his impressive Covid-19 prediction. We also spoke to Dr. Manheim about how forecasting plays a role in his personal life, and heard about his own process when it comes to approaching new forecasting domains.
At the end of the episode David also gives us a sneak peak into some upcoming research he is working on regarding the risks associated with Human Challenge Trials in vaccine development, and the potential for vaccine protocol improvement in the future!
Episode two of The Right Side of Maybe is out now!
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Find David Manheim
Twitter: https://twitter.com/davidmanheim
Learn More About David: https://about.me/davidmanheim
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