Historical: Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

✅ YES: Hypermind

• Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of March, 2022. Invasion counts as the Russian army hostilely entering Ukraine, unless it only takes place in airspace.

✅ YES: Good Judgment Inc. (superforecasters)

• Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of May, 2022. Invasion counts as NATO or a NATO-member state accusing Russia of such an action. Above probability is reached by aggregating the three different available options (Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only; Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory; or other Ukrainian territory only).

✅ YES: Good Judgment Open

• Same as above.

✅ YES: INFER (formerly CSET-Fortell)

• Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of December, 2022. Invasion counts if more than 50,000 Russian troops participate.

✅ YES: Metaculus

• Asks whether Russia will invade Ukraine by the end of December, 2022. Invasion counts if either (a) Russia declares they have invaded or (b) Two of the following countries declare they have–United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia. An invasion does not count if the invasion is contained to the Russian-occupied portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

You can also find similar questions on:

• ✅ YES: Insight Prediction (real-money prediction market)
• ✅ YES: Manifold Markets (play-money prediction market)
• ✅ YES: Futuur (real- and play-money prediction market)
• ✅ YES: Almanis (forecasting platform)

Where will Russia invade Ukraine?

Good Judgment Inc. (superforecasters)

• ✅ YES: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
• 0%: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
• 0%: Invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only

Good Judgment Open

• ✅ YES: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory
• 0%: Invading the Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only
• 0%: Invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and/or Luhansk Oblasts only

Metaculus

Historical Data

Written Invasion Predictions

Notes on Forecasting the Invasion of Ukraine

Should we have seen it coming more clearly?

Telling the FutureRobert de Neufville

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

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Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

If we act like we’re going to war, we’re probably going to war

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Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)? - Good Judgment

Will Russia Invade Ukraine (Again)? Superforecasters’ View Since November 2021, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters have been closely monitoring the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border. They did so the way they approach any forecasting question—by doing extensive research on publicly available data…

Good Judgment