Russo-Ukrainian War: Forecasts and Resources

All recorded forecasts are updated weekly. Get the latest signals on the conflict by following @WarSignals on Twitter.

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In 2022, will the legitimate government of Ukraine recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea? (Hypermind)
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? (Metaculus)
Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? (Metaculus)
In 2022, will the legitimate government of Ukraine recognize one or more independent countries in the Donbas region? (Hypermind)

Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? Metaculus
Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? Metaculus
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? Polymarket
Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? Metaculus
In 2022, will NATO invoke its Article 5 on collective defense? Hypermind
Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process? GJ Open
Between 11 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process? GJI
Will NATO expand in 2022? Polymarket

Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022? (GJ Inc)
Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022? (GJ Open)
Will Russia recognize Transnistria as an independent territory by Dec 31, 2022? (Metaculus)

Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus? (Metaculus)
Will Russian troops invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia prior to 2024? (Metaculus)
Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? (Metaculus)
Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? (Metaculus)

Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace? GJ Open
Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022? Manifold
In 2022, will a nuclear weapon be used to kill? Hypermind
Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? Metaculus (note, there is limited access on who can view this question)
Will the United States accuse Russia of having used chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine before July? (Hypermind)

Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)
Will more than 100,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? (Metaculus)